Innoviz as the unrivaled champion of LiDAR?
Innoviz Technologies develops high-performance, automotive-grade LiDAR sensors and perception software, crucial for enabling safe and reliable autonomous driving.
Dear Growth Investors,
Innoviz Technologies, Ticker: INVZ, is a leading Tier-1 supplier of high-performance LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) sensors and perception software. As of early 2026, the company is transitioning from an R&D-focused startup into a high-volume manufacturer, fueled by major partnerships with global automotive giants. The announcement of the InnovizThree combining LiDAR and camera is a major breakthrough for Innoviz, because it introduces the first fully colored, long-range 3D LiDAR and camera sensor-fusion module. InnovizThree is designed for behind the windshield and roof mounting integrations making it ideal for AI-enhanced platforms such as humanoids, micro robotics and drones. With that, the total addressable market is increasing significantly.
With Omer Keilaf I recently spoke about the “Industry shakeup”, addressing the “LiDAR is useless” argument, future strategy and growth opportunities for Innoviz. The really fantastic part: Omer has already hinted that they are 2-3 generations ahead of competition. The full interview transcript will be provided in chapter 16.
But now let’s dive in …
Table of Contents
Investment Thesis
What is LiDAR and what are the real use cases?
What’s the real difference between L2, L3, and L4 LIDAR?
Total Adressable Market (TAM) for LiDAR
Lidar vs. Camera: A Snapshot
Omer Keilaf: Founder and CEO
Business Model and Technology of Innoviz
Development: From Tier 2 to Tier 1
SPAC IPO
Industry shakeup: Luminar Bankruptcy
Working with Secretive OEMs and Tech Partners
Financials Q3 2025
Valuation, growth opportunities (Non-Automotive: Underserved Markets) and Tenbagger potential
InnovizThree and InnovizSMART as Game-Changers
Innoviz2 for L4, Innoviz3 for Consumer L3
Interview Transcript: “We’re the Only LIDAR Designed for Level 4”
Risk factors (also competition)
Conclusion
1. Investment Thesis
Innoviz represents a compelling investment opportunity in the field of autonomous driving and advanced sensing technologies. As a provider of LiDAR solutions, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the shift toward higher levels of vehicle autonomy (Level 3 and beyond), where precise 3D perception is critical for safety and liability. With a market cap of approximately $230 million as of January 2026, Innoviz trades at a significant discount to its growth potential, driven by a Tier-1 supplier of advanced solid-state LiDAR sensors and perception software to major automotive OEMs like BMW, Volkswagen, Mobileye and Daimler/Torc, as well as expansion into non-automotive sectors. The company’s focus on product development over marketing has allowed it to outlast competitors like Luminar, which filed for bankruptcy in late 2025.
Revenue growth accelerated in 2025, with Q3 revenues reaching $15.3 million, up 238% year-over-year, signaling being on track for production ramp-ups starting in 2026. Innoviz’s technological edge, including the InnovizThree’s behind-the-windshield integration and resilience to environmental factors, positions it for “winner-takes-most” dynamics in a consolidating market. InnovizThree is the first fully colored long range LiDAR with camera, creating a compact sensor-fusion module designed to significantly reduce OEM integration complexity. The solution combines LiDAR and RGB sensing in a single compact perception module, purpose-built for behind-the-windshield installations, drones, micro-robotics and humanoids. With a TAM expanding beyond automotive to $15 billion by 2030, and the company’s 2-3 year lead over rivals, Innoviz has tenbagger potential if it executes on its roadmap, though risks from competition and adoption delays persist. Analysts view it as a “buy” with targets implying 143%+ upside, supported by recent traction at CES 2026 and a “transformative” 2025 marked by doubled revenues and expanded customer programs.
However, this thesis hinges on successful execution amid competition and market delays, making it a high-reward play for risk-tolerant investors focused on long-term tech disruption.
2. What is LiDAR and what are the real use cases?
LiDAR, or Light Detection and Ranging, is a remote sensing technology that uses pulsed laser light to measure distances and create high-resolution 3D models of objects and environments. It functions like a sophisticated laser rangefinder, emitting laser pulses and calculating the “time-of-flight” for reflections to generate detailed point clouds. Unlike passive sensors, LiDAR actively maps the world in 3D, reflecting the real-world movement that occurs in three dimensions.
Think of it as sonar, but instead of using sound waves, it uses millions of laser pulses per second.
How it works: A LiDAR sensor emits infrared laser beams. When these beams hit an object, a pedestrian, a car, or even a leaf, they bounce back to the sensor.
The Result: By measuring the time it takes for each pulse to return, the system calculates the exact distance of everything around it.
The "Point Cloud": These millions of data points create a "point cloud", a highly accurate, 3D digital map of the environment. Unlike cameras, LiDAR doesn't get "blinded" by the sun or struggle in the dark, it provides its own light source, making it essential for the safety of autonomous systems.
Real use cases extend far beyond autonomous vehicles. In automotive, LiDAR enables precise object detection for advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and full autonomy, detecting obstacles in adverse weather or low light. Beyond cars, it’s applied in smart cities for traffic management and infrastructure monitoring, perimeter security for detecting intrusions, drones and micro-robotics for navigation, and even humanoids for environmental awareness. Innoviz’s solutions, like the InnovizSMARTer integrated with NVIDIA Jetson Orin Nano, reduce data transmission needs, enabling wireless deployments in bandwidth-constrained environments such as mobility hubs and security perimeters.
3. What’s the difference between L2, L3, and L4 LiDAR?
Level 2 (L2): Partial automation, like adaptive cruise control. Many L2 systems rely on cameras and radar without LiDAR, as the driver remains responsible. LiDAR is optional here, often seen as a “luxury” for enhanced safety but not essential.
Level 3 (L3): Conditional automation, where the vehicle handles driving in specific conditions, but the driver must be ready to intervene. LiDAR becomes necessary for precision, providing redundant 3D data to minimize risks. Manufacturers assume liability during operation, demanding robust sensor fusion to resolve conflicts between sensors. Innoviz targets L3 with products like InnovizThree, designed for passenger vehicles.
Level 4 (L4): High automation, no driver needed in defined operational domains (e.g., geofenced areas). LiDAR is critical for full environmental mapping, especially in trucks or robotaxis. Here, systems must handle all scenarios autonomously. Innoviz’s InnovizTwo supports L4, with deals like Daimler/Torc for autonomous trucks.
The key difference: L2 focuses on assistance, L3 on supervised autonomy with liability transfer, and L4 on unsupervised operation. LiDAR’s precision is a “necessity” for L3/L4 to ensure safety amid sensor contention.
4. TAM: Total Addressable Market for LiDAR
The global LiDAR market size is accounted at USD 2.89 billion in 2025 and predicted to increase from USD 3.53 billion in 2026 to approximately USD 15.83 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 20.91% from 2025 to 2034. The automotive segment, Innoviz’s core, is expected to hit $10 billion by 2030, fueled by L3/L4 adoption in passenger cars and trucks.
Non-automotive markets add significant upside, with solid-state LiDAR (like Innoviz’s) projected at $3.2 billion by 2030, including smart cities, security, and drones. Innoviz’s CEO estimates the company is 2-3 years ahead, targeting a “winner-takes-most” share in non-China markets, with Level 3 vehicles as the volume driver. Fragmented non-auto sectors offer higher ASPs and shorter sales cycles, potentially expanding Innoviz’s TAM beyond $10 billion.
5. LiDAR vs. Camera: A Snapshot
The debate between LiDAR and camera-based systems is central to autonomous vehicle development. LiDAR uses laser pulses to create precise 3D maps of the environment, while cameras capture visual data similar to human eyes. Cameras provide rich visual data, excelling in color and texture recognition, but struggle in low-light, adverse weather, or with depth perception, leading to potential “hallucinations” in AI vision systems. LiDAR’s “superpower” is active 3D mapping via laser pulses, delivering precise distance measurements and point clouds unaffected by lighting. However, LiDAR lacks color and can be costlier.
The optimal approach is synergy: LiDAR complements cameras for a superior safety profile, resolving “sensor contention” where data conflicts arise. Innoviz’s perception software fuses inputs, prioritizing LiDAR’s reliability in rain, snow, or sunlight. Even Tesla’s Elon Musk may eventually adopt LiDAR as an addition, per CEO Keilaf. In essence, cameras “see” like humans, but LiDAR provides the precision necessity for liability in L3/L4 autonomy.
LiDAR vs. Camera in autonomous ariving: A comparison with Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD)
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system relies exclusively on cameras (vision-only approach), avoiding LiDAR and even radar in its latest hardware iterations. This contrasts with competitors like Waymo, Cruise, now also Rivian or Innoviz’s partners (e.g., BMW, Volkswagen), who often fuse LiDAR with cameras for enhanced safety and precision.
From the interview with Innoviz CEO Omer Keilaf, he emphasizes LiDAR’s “superpower” in providing accurate 3D perception, predicting that even Tesla’s Elon Musk will eventually integrate it for a “superior safety profile.”
Technology comparison
A LiDAR point cloud of a street intersection, showing precise depth and structure.
Tesla’s FSD camera array, typically 8-12 cameras around the vehicle for 360-degree coverage.
Many systems (e.g., InnovizThree) fuse both for redundancy: Cameras handle classification (e.g., “that’s a pedestrian”), while LiDAR provides exact distances and works in poor visibility. Fusion (LiDAR + cameras) is often seen as ideal for redundancy, resolving conflicts via software (e.g., Innoviz’s perception algorithms prioritize LiDAR in bad weather).
Tesla’s FSD: Vision-Only vs. LiDAR-Based Systems
Tesla’s FSD (currently “Supervised” in v14 as of January 2026) uses only cameras and AI neural networks trained on billions of miles of real-world data. Elon Musk argues LiDAR is a “crutch”, unnecessary since humans drive with eyes alone, and it adds cost/complexity without solving the “real” problem of AI understanding. This makes FSD more affordable (e.g., $99/month subscription) and scalable.
Strengths of Tesla’s approach
Performance in Clear Conditions: FSD v14 handles complex maneuvers like lane changes and urban navigation better than many rivals, per MotorTrend’s “Best Tech 2026” award. It “crushed” LiDAR in tests, including heavy rain.
Cost Efficiency: No expensive sensors, relies on software updates. CES 2026 demos showed rivals (e.g., Nvidia) lagging by years, validating Tesla’s vision-only path.
Training Consistency: Human drivers use vision, so fleet data directly trains the AI without “sensor fusion confusion.”
Criticisms and Limitations
Safety in Edge Cases: Cameras struggle with depth (cm vs. LiDAR’s mm accuracy), leading to potential errors in fog, glare, or sudden obstacles.
vs. LiDAR Systems: Competitors like Lucid or Waymo use LiDAR for unsupervised L4 autonomy (e.g., no driver needed in geofenced areas), achieving higher reliability in bad weather. Tesla’s FSD remains L2/L3-supervised, not yet robotaxi-ready without intervention.
Debate Relevance: As of 2026, the vision-only vs. LiDAR debate persists. Tesla pushes boundaries with AI, but critics argue LiDAR is essential for full autonomy. European FSD rollout is forcing some rivals to adopt vision, but LiDAR remains key for precision.
Innoviz’s perspective from the interview
Omer Keilaf argues cameras alone are insufficient for L3/L4 where manufacturers take liability, LiDAR adds precision without increasing risk via advanced fusion (e.g., InnovizThree detects blockages and operates flawlessly in dirt/rain). He views LiDAR as a necessity, not luxury, and foresees Tesla adding it for synergy.
In summary, cameras offer cost and simplicity (Tesla’s edge), but LiDAR provides unmatched reliability in challenging conditions. For FSD, vision-only works well for supervised driving but may hit limits in unsupervised scenarios. The “best” depends on the autonomy level: Fusion wins for safety-critical applications, aligning with Innoviz’s roadmap. If Tesla achieves true unsupervised FSD without LiDAR, it could disrupt the industry, but the race is still on.
6. Omer Keilaf: Founder and CEO
Keilaf Omer serves as Co-Founder and CEO of Innoviz Technologies, bringing deep expertise in electro-optics, computer vision, and signal processing from his background in the Israeli Defense Forces’ elite technological unit. Under his leadership since the company’s inception in 2016, Innoviz has secured pivotal OEM partnerships and advanced from startup to a Nasdaq-listed entity with production-ready technologies. Keilaf’s vision emphasizes delivering “best-in-class” LiDAR for safe autonomy, as evidenced by recent shareholder letters highlighting 2025 as a “breakout year” with revenue doubling and CES 2026 traction.
His strategic focus on scaling production and expanding into smart applications has attracted high-profile collaborations, such as with Daimler Truck. Keilaf’s hands-on approach is credited with navigating the competitive LiDAR space, though the team faces scrutiny over cash management amid ongoing losses.
As mentioned above I recently had a great call (Interview in chapter 16) with Omer. He puts a lot of effort into building the best LiDAR (now also camera) company.
Omer Keilaf said: “The world is 3D. Movement in the real world is in 3D and so should be the technology” and “we want to continue to innovate and be a major player in L3 and L4 autonomous driving. We hope to present InnovizThree to more possible customers to spread the awareness of this unique technology, which is 2-3 years ahead of competition. In my opinion, Innoviz is the only reliable player for L4 autonomous driving in the future.”
7. Business Model and Technology of Innoviz
Innoviz operates as a Tier 1 supplier of LiDAR hardware and software, generating revenue from sensor sales, non-recurring engineering (NRE) fees, and perception software licensing. Key products include InnovizOne (early gen), InnovizTwo (long/short-range for automotive), InnovizThree (colored LiDAR with integrated camera), and InnovizSMART (edge-processed for non-auto). The model emphasizes OEM integration, with “stickiness” from design wins ensuring long-term volumes. Technology highlights: 34mm height for behind-windshield mounting, blockage detection, and sensor fusion reducing complexity. This scalable approach targets $500 ASPs, balancing premium margins with volume.
InnovizTwo is the second-generation automotive-grade LiDAR platform by Innoviz, optimized for superior 3D sensing in L3-L5 autonomous driving. It comes in two variants: Long-Range (for high-speed highway scenarios) and Short- to Mid-Range (for urban or close-proximity detection). InnovizTwo is a core product in current OEM partnerships, such as Volkswagen’s ID. Buzz AD, where multiple units provide 360° coverage. Unique Features are high resolution for detailed mapping, low power consumption, resilient to environmental factors like rain or sunlight.
Target applications/markets are light commercial vehicles, high-speed commercial vehicles, shuttles, robotaxis, trucks, robotics.
InnovizThree was unveiled in December 2025 and highlighted at CES 2026, this is Innoviz’s next-generation low-profile, automotive-grade long-range LiDAR. It’s a “quantum leap” in technology, being the first fully colored long-range LiDAR with an integrated RGB camera for sensor fusion. This reduces integration complexity for OEMs and enhances perception in challenging conditions.Unique Features are Behind-the-windshield installation (only 34mm height), blockage detection (e.g., mud, rain); colored point clouds for better object classification; performs in any weather or sunlight. Target applications/markets are consumer vehicles, light commercial vehicles, robotics, robotaxis, drones, micro-robotics, humanoids.
InnovizSMART is a high-performance LiDAR for non-automotive “smart” applications, focusing on security, mobility, and infrastructure. The enhanced InnovizSMARTer variant, announced at CES 2026, integrates with NVIDIA Jetson Orin Nano for “far-edge” real-time 3D perception, compressing data by 1-2 orders of magnitude for wireless deployments. Unique Features are edge processing for bandwidth-constrained environments; supports Wi-Fi, LTE, 5G, high GPU efficiency for compression. Target applications/markets: are security, mapping, robotics, construction, intelligent traffic, aerial surveillance, perimeter security, smart cities, mobility.
8. Development: From Tier 2 to Tier 1
Innoviz began as a Tier 2 supplier, partnering with Magna for BMW’s initial deal (ASP split: Innoviz $600 of $1,500-1,700). This allowed focus on tech while leveraging partners’ manufacturing. By 2025, Innoviz transitioned to Tier 1, directly supplying OEMs like Daimler/Torc and a top-5 passenger OEM. This shift captures higher margins, full ASPs, and deeper integration control.
The evolution reflects matured tech: from prototypes to series production-ready sensors. Partnerships with Vueron for AI data and NVIDIA for edge processing accelerate this, enabling “far edge” solutions and reducing reliance on intermediaries.
9. SPAC IPO
In April 2021, Innoviz became the first Israeli company to go public via SPAC merger with Collective Growth Corporation. The deal valued Innoviz at $1.4 billion, raising $371 million in gross proceeds. This funded expansion to 400+ employees and R&D for products like InnovizTwo.
In the second half of 2020, Innoviz stock traded relatively flatly near the $10 mark due to Pre-Merger SPAC rules. This stability ended abruptly in early 2021 with a massive vertical spike (SPAC-IPO), where the price surged to its all-time high for this period, reaching well above $16. However, this momentum was fleeting. The remainder of 2021 saw a sharp and rapid correction, erasing the majority of those gains.
From 2022 through 2023, the volatility dampened slightly, though the trend remained negative. The stock fluctuated largely between $3 and $6, attempting several minor rallies that failed to sustain higher levels. By 2024, the price had drifted into the low single digits, eventually falling below the $2 threshold. Throughout 2025 and into early 2026, the stock largely stagnated at these lower levels.
By the end of the period on January 24, 2026, the share price stood at $1.10. This reflects a substantial total value loss of 89% over the displayed timeframe. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is -32.5%, underscoring the severe depreciation the stock has faced since its early 2021 peak.
10. Industry Shakeup: Luminar Bankruptcy
The LiDAR sector has consolidated dramatically, from over 200 players in the early 2020s to a handful by 2026. Many were “marketing companies” or copycats, burning cash on hype rather than tech. Luminar, once the most valuable at $10 billion+, filed for voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy in December 2025 to facilitate a sale, with support from noteholders. Its delisting from Nasdaq followed in January 2026.
Investors and OEMs reacted by favoring substance: Innoviz’s under-the-radar focus yielded contracts with BMW, Mobileye, and Torc. The shakeup reassures partners that LiDAR consolidates around reliable players, not dying. Keilaf predicts two to three survivors per region, with Innoviz leading in non-China regions.
11. Working with Secretive OEMs and Tech Partners
Innoviz’s partnerships underscore its credibility. Key OEMs include BMW, Volkswagen (L3 programs), and Daimler/Torc (L4 trucks, supplying InnovizTwo). In collaboration with Volkswagen Innoviz integrates nine InnovizTwo LiDARs into each ID. Buzz AD vehicle, delivering full 360° coverage for safe and reliable navigation in complex urban environments.
Tech Partners
Mobileye for perception, Vueron for AI integration, and NVIDIA for InnovizSMARTer. Distributors and integrators span automotive and non-auto. These secretive deals (often under NDAs) focus on L3/L4 readiness, with SOP (Standard Operating Procedure) in 2026.
With Mobileye officially naming Innoviz as its LiDAR provider for the Mobileye Drive platform (following the shutdown of Mobileye's internal LiDAR program in September 2024), Innoviz is indeed positioning itself as the "shovel-salesman" for the next era of AI and autonomy. The potential for profit and growth here lies in three specific areas where Innoviz’s newly announced InnovizThree intersects with Mobileye’s massive expansion. Mobileye’s new deal with a top-10 U.S. automaker involves delivering 9 million systems as "standard equipment." While these specific EyeQ6H Surround systems are primarily camera-and-radar-based to lower costs, the "halo" effect is real. As automakers scale Mobileye’s Surround ADAS, they create a natural upgrade path to Level 3/4 "hands-off/eyes-off" systems (like Mobileye Chauffeur). Since Mobileye now relies on third-party LiDAR (specifically Innoviz), every "premium" version of these millions of vehicles is a potential socket for an Innoviz sensor.
Mobileye's $900 million acquisition of Mentee Robotics is a strategic pivot into "Physical AI." InnovizThree's Role in that: Innoviz specifically designed the InnovizThree to be 60% smaller and include an integrated RGB camera, explicitly targeting humanoids and micro-robotics. Humanoids require 360-degree perception but have very limited space. By merging LiDAR and Camera into one "colored LiDAR" module, Innoviz reduces the wiring and "bulk" that previously made LiDAR difficult for robots. If Mobileye integrates these into Mentee’s production units (targeted for 2028), Innoviz becomes the primary perception hardware for Mobileye's entire robotics division. In a "gold rush" for AI, the winners are often those providing the essential tools. Innoviz’s new technology solves a major "pain point" for Mobileye. Instead of Mobileye’s software having to manually align separate camera and LiDAR feeds (which is computationally expensive), InnovizThree delivers pre-aligned, factory-calibrated "colored 3D data." This allows Mobileye to run its AI on less power-hungry chips, making the entire system cheaper and more attractive to OEMs.
In my opinion, Innoviz is moving beyond being just a "part supplier" to being a system-fusion partner. By providing the "eyes" (Camera + LiDAR) in a single, calibrated package, they are making it nearly impossible for Mobileye to look elsewhere for its next-generation L4 and Robotics projects.
12. Financials Q3 2025
Innoviz reported strong Q3 2025 results on November 12, 2025. Revenues hit $15.3 million, up 238% YoY from $4.5 million, driven by NREs and LiDAR sales.
Year-to-date revenues reached $42.4 million, 2.3x higher than 2024. Net loss narrowed to -$0.08 EPS, beating estimates of -$0.09. Cash position remained solid, supporting R&D. Full-year guidance implied continued growth, with CES 2026 traction highlighted in a CEO letter recently.
13. Valuation, Growth Opportunities (Non-Automotive: Underserved Markets) and Tenbagger Potential
Valuation
At $1.13 per share (January 22, 2026), Innoviz’s market cap is $230 million, with enterprise value $190 million. Price/sales (TTM) is 4.42, undervalued given 2025’s revenue surge. Analysts forecast $3.10 average price target, implying 175% upside.
Growth
Automotive volumes from L3/L4 deals; non-auto (smart cities, security) offers higher ASPs and $3-5 billion TAM subset. Underserved homeland security is “overwhelming,” per Keilaf.
Tenbagger potential
If revenues scale to $500M+ by 2030 (capturing 5% TAM), valuation could exceed $2-3 billion at 5x sales, 10x+ from current levels.
14. InnovizThree and InnovizSMART as Game-Changers
InnovizThree, unveiled at CES 2026, is the first fully colored long-range LiDAR with integrated RGB camera, creating a compact sensor-fusion module. At 34mm height, it’s designed for behind-the-windshield installation, preserving vehicle aesthetics while minimizing noise and power. It detects blockages (rain, mud) and performs in any weather, distinguishing reflections beyond fences.
InnovizSMARTer, paired with NVIDIA Jetson Orin Nano, enables “far edge” processing, compressing data by 1-2 orders for wireless use in smart infrastructure. These game-changers reduce costs, complexity, and unlock non-auto markets like security and mobility.
The announcement of the InnovizThree combining LiDAR and camera is a major breakthrough for Innoviz because it introduces the first fully colored, long-range 3D LiDAR and camera sensor-fusion module. Congrats Innoviz.
What are the advantages of InnovizThree?
By integrating RGB sensing directly with LiDAR in a single, compact unit, Innoviz has addressed several of the most significant hurdles in autonomous technology.
Here is why this development is a "Game-Changer"
Radical Miniaturization and Integration
The InnovizThree is 60% smaller than its predecessor, the InnovizTwo. This slim, compact design is purpose-built for behind-the-windshield installations, which allows for a cleaner vehicle design without the bulky, external equipment often associated with autonomous sensors.Elimination of Calibration Complexity
Historically, OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) had to manually align and calibrate separate camera and LiDAR systems, a process that is both difficult and time-consuming. The InnovizThree features factory-aligned RGB sensing with an ability to ensure precise Visual-to-LiDAR geometry across all production units. Because the capture is hardware-synchronized, it provides reliable multi-modal data correlation right out of the box, drastically reducing the effort required for vehicle integration.Streamlined Engineering and Cost Savings
The solution operates through a single integration interface, which minimizes:
• Wiring and system complexity.
• Validation processes and engineering effort.
• Overall costs for the customer, while enabling a faster time-to-production.Expansion Beyond Automotive
While Innoviz is a leading Tier-1 supplier for car manufacturers, the small form factor and "color" capabilities of the InnovizThree unlock growth in entirely new sectors. This technology is specifically designed to meet the needs of:
• Drones
• Micro-robotics
• Humanoids
Integrating a camera and LiDAR into one factory-aligned module is like the transition from the early days of personal computers, where you had to manually install and configure separate sound cards, graphics cards, and modems, to modern laptops where everything is seamlessly integrated and "plug-and-play." It removes the "technical friction" that previously slowed down the mass adoption of high-performance perception technology.
15. Innoviz2 for L4, Innoviz3 for Consumer L3
InnovizTwo (long/short-range) targets L4 applications, like autonomous trucks with Daimler/Torc, offering high performance for heavy-duty logistics where precision trumps cost. InnovizThree focuses on consumer L3 vehicles, with behind-windshield design and sensor fusion for scalable, OEM-friendly deployment. Priced at $500, it counters Chinese commoditization claims. This segmentation positions Innoviz for both volume (L3 passenger) and premium (L4 trucks/robotaxis) markets as already mentioned in the product overview.
16. Interview Transcript: “We’re the Only LiDAR Designed for Level 4”
In the interview with CEO Omer Keilaf emphasized Innoviz’s edge: “We’re the only reliable player for future Level 4 autonomous driving.” He distinguished from “marketing companies” like Luminar, highlighting tangible wins (BMW, VW) and tech advantages (34mm height, blockage detection). Keilaf disputed Chinese $200 units as “untrue,” targeting $500 for scalability. Excited about non-auto, he sees homeland security revolutionizing TAM. He predicts even Tesla adopting LiDAR, underscoring its necessity for L3/L4 liability.
Introduction
Omer Keilaf is the CEO of Innoviz Technologies and has spent the last 22 years driving cutting-edge technologies from inception to commercialization. As the co-founder of Innoviz, a leading provider of LiDAR sensing solutions, Keilaf has overseen the company’s success in obtaining design win nominations with the world’s leading OEM manufacturers, such as the BMW Group and the VW Group.
In April 2021, under his leadership, Innoviz Technologies became the first Israeli company to go public via a SPAC merger. Keilaf spearheaded the company’s rapid growth as it raised $371 million and expanded to over 400 employees. Prior to co-founding Innoviz, he served as an officer in an elite technological unit of the Intelligence Corps of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). He also held senior leadership roles at companies including Consumer Physics and STMicroelectronics. Keilaf holds a BSc and MSc in Electrical Engineering and an MBA from Tel Aviv University.
Simon: Let’s head to the technology your company provides: LiDAR. Could you explain in a few words what LiDAR is, and what is its ‘superpower’ compared to standard cameras and radar?
Keilaf describes LiDAR as a remote sensing technology that uses pulsed laser light to measure distances. He explains that it creates precise, high-resolution 3D models of objects and environments, essentially acting as a sophisticated laser rangefinder for mapping. The technology works by sending out laser pulses, measuring the time it takes for them to return after hitting surfaces, and processing this “time-of-flight” data to generate detailed point clouds.
“The world is 3D. Movement in the real world is in 3D,” Keilaf states, emphasizing that the technology guiding vehicles should reflect that reality.
He outlines the company’s product suite, which includes the InnovizOne, the InnovizTwo (in both Long-Range and Short- to Mid-Range variants), the InnovizSmart, and the highly anticipated InnovizThree, which was presented at CES 2026.
Regarding the industry landscape, Keilaf mentions Elon Musk, predicting that even the Tesla CEO will eventually integrate LiDAR as an addition to cameras. He notes that while cameras are powerful, the synergy between LiDAR and vision systems creates a superior safety profile.
Simon: Survival vs. Failure: Luminar, once the most valuable company in the LiDAR sector, has now filed for bankruptcy. How are investors and OEMs reacting? And how can partners like BMW and Volkswagen be reassured that LiDAR is not a dying technology, but rather continues to consolidate despite the negative press surrounding the sector?
Keilaf addresses the market turbulence by distinguishing Innoviz from its competitors. He asserts that companies like Luminar were largely “marketing companies,” and in some cases “copycats,” that spent millions on image rather than substance. While these competitors shone in the press, Keilaf explains that Innoviz went “under the radar” to focus intensely on product development rather than writing press releases.
He acknowledges that the stock came under pressure but points to the company’s tangible achievements: winning awards and securing critical contracts with major players like BMW, Mobileye, Torc, and Vueron.
Keilaf highlights a specific technical advantage that fascinated OEMs: The unit’s height. At only 34mm, the Innoviz sensor is ideal for integration behind the windshield or roofline in Level 3 passenger cars and Level 4 shuttles. He notes that this form factor ensures the vehicle’s design remains unaffected while minimizing in-cabin acoustic noise and power consumption.
Simon: Industry experts argue that LiDAR actually reduces safety because of ‘sensor contention’, when a laser and a camera disagree, the computer gets confused. How does Innoviz’s perception software resolve this conflict without increasing risk? Furthermore, if AI can eventually ‘see’ like a human with just vision, is LiDAR’s precision a luxury rather than a necessity?
Keilaf counters this by showcasing the resilience of the InnovizThree. He explains that the system performs despite sunlight, any weather condition, and window blockage. The LiDAR also features outstanding detection of window blockage, regardless of raindrops, snow, ice, mud, bugs or debris on the LiDAR window. This ensures that all objects and obstacles in the FOV are properly detected and identified. It can even distinguish second reflections detected beyond fences. To demonstrate this, Keilaf points to live demonstrations of the InnovizThree operating flawlessly with dirt on the surface. He highlights a key innovation: InnovizThree is the first fully colored long-range LiDAR with an integrated camera. This creates a compact sensor-fusion module designed to reduce integration complexity for OEMs.
Unlocking new business growth potential from content per vehicle and addressing new industries: The solution combines LiDAR and RGB sensing in a single compact perception module, purpose-built for behind-the-windshield installations, drones, micro-robotics and humanoids. He addresses the autonomous driving roadmap, noting that while many automotive companies are deploying Level 2 systems without LiDAR, the shift to Level 3 and Level 4, where the manufacturer takes liability, will necessitate the precision of LiDAR.
Simon: Cost vs. Value: LiDAR is still seen as an expensive ‘belt and suspenders’ approach. With Chinese competitors reportedly dropping prices to $200 per unit, how does Innoviz maintain a premium margin while fighting the perception that LiDAR is an overpriced commodity?
Keilaf discusses the economics of the InnovizThree, noting that the consolidation of an RGB camera inside the unit reinforces a commitment to scalable, OEM-friendly solutions. This sensor-fusion approach is designed for series production, offering faster deployment and eventual cost savings.
Regarding pricing, Keilaf targets a $500 price point. He disputes the claims of Chinese competitors offering units for $200, stating that these companies are “untrue” about their supply chains.
He predicts high “stickiness” in the market, similar to the radar and camera sectors, where only two or three major suppliers survive. In the LiDAR space, Keilaf foresees a “winner takes most” scenario, likely split between China and the rest of the world. He views Level 3 passenger vehicles as the main volume generator, with Level 4 trucks following to gain economies of scale.
Simon: The Pivot to Trucking: You recently secured a deal with a major OEM for L4 autonomous trucks (Daimler/Torc). Is the future of LiDAR actually in heavy-duty logistics rather than the passenger cars we all expected?
Keilaf confirms that while the primary focus remains on OEMs and EVs, but innovation is driving Innoviz into new industries. He highlights the integration of the InnovizSMARTer LiDAR with the NVIDIA Jetson Orin Nano. This partnership delivers a complete “far edge” solution for real-time 3D perception. The new solution delivers a complete far edge solution for real-time 3D perception, enabling wireless deployment of LiDAR sensors in bandwidth-constrained environments while significantly reducing the centralized processing cost unlocking new business growth potential with new addressable industries. The integration with NVIDIA Jetson Orin Nano addresses a major barrier in smart infrastructure. High-performing LiDAR sensors generate gigabits per second of raw data, which is impractical for wireless or cloud-based systems. The compact form factor and high GPU efficiency of NVIDIA Jetson Orin Nano makes it an ideal selection for edge-processing and real-time compression. InnovizSMARTer reduces data transmission requirements by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude, eliminating the requirement for costly fiber infrastructure and enabling flexible, scalable deployments. The solution supports Wi-Fi, LTE, 5G, as well as other wireless networks, making high-performance 3D perception possible in multiple markets and use cases, including smart cities, mobility, perimeter security, and more. We are going to revolutionise the security market.
Simon: What I’m really excited about is Innovation: Would you agree that with the new products, the Total Addressable Market (TAM) is increasing significantly?
Keilaf agrees, stating his ambition to remain a major player in Level 3 and Level 4 autonomous driving while taking a leading market share. He believes Innoviz is 2-3 years ahead of the competition and stands as the only reliable player for future Level 4 autonomous driving.
He outlines the strategic roadmap: First, secure a leading position in Level 3 automotive, next, leverage those gains for Level 4 (trucks and robotaxis), and finally, expand into non-automotive sectors. He notes that non-automotive markets are more fragmented and have shorter sales cycles, but offer higher Average Selling Prices (ASP).
Keilaf expresses robust confidence in the automotive programs with VW, Audi, Mobileye, and Daimler. However, he is personally most excited about the “overwhelming” opportunity in non-automotive sectors, specifically homeland security. He believes this sector is underserved and that Innoviz is poised to revolutionize it from the ground up, significantly expanding their Total Addressable Market beyond the automotive industry.
17. Risk Factors (Also Competition)
Innoviz faces significant risks, including ongoing cash burn (reduced, but still $7-10 million quarterly) and potential dilution from equity raises like the $75 million ATM program, which could pressure the stock if not offset by growth.
Execution challenges in scaling manufacturing for high-volume contracts pose medium-probability threats, such as delays or quality issues leading to penalties.
Customer concentration is high, with reliance on a few OEMs like Volkswagen and BMW, any program cancellations could derail revenues.
Broader market risks include slower-than-expected AV adoption due to regulatory hurdles or economic factors, as well as geopolitical tensions in Israel affecting operations.
Competition is intense from established players like Ouster, Aeva and chinese competition. These rivals offer similar solutions, often with comparable OEM ties, potentially eroding Innoviz’s pricing power or market share. Short interest at 11% reflects bearish bets on recovery delays. Tesla’s camera-only push and AI advancements could marginalize LiDAR if vision suffices for L3.
18. Conclusion
Innoviz stands out in a consolidated LiDAR market, with proven tech, OEM wins, and non-auto expansion driving growth. At a depressed valuation, it offers asymmetric upside for patient investors betting on autonomy’s rise. While risks exist, the company’s lead and 2025 momentum suggest strong potential, buy for long-term exposure to this transformative sector.
What’s mainly important is that Innoviz has survived the "LiDAR shakeout" by becoming a direct Tier-1 supplier. 2026 is their "scale year", where the success of the VW shuttle program and the innovation of the InnovizThree will determine if they can reach profitability. In December 2025, Rivian held its "AI and Autonomy Day," where the company made a massive 180-degree turn: LiDAR is in. After years of leaning toward a "camera-heavy" approach, CEO RJ Scaringe confirmed that the upcoming Rivian R2 and the R3/R3X will feature a LiDAR sensor integrated into the roofline. Industry analysts have identified Innoviz as the likely supplier. If the rumor is confirmed, it would give Innoviz access to one of the most popular EV platforms in North America, potentially doubling their projected 2027 revenue. If Rivian chooses a competitor like Ouster or an in-house solution, Innoviz would lose a major high-volume opportunity. The "InnovizThree" and the "Rivian R2" appear to be a perfect technical and strategic match.
My bullish prediction for Innoviz is that the company will lead the LiDAR revolution in autonomous driving, powering mass adoption in vehicles from BMW and Volkswagen with its advanced sensors, scaling to $500M+ annual revenue by 2030 through OEM partnerships and AI integration, outpacing competitors and becoming a $20B leader in safe, hands-free mobility ecosystems.
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Disclaimer
The content and materials presented or linked to are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice or recommendations and should not be considered as such.